Russia

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AdorableOtter
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Re: Russia

Post by AdorableOtter » Tue Apr 18, 2023 12:52 am

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Le Redditeur
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Re: Russia

Post by Le Redditeur » Tue Apr 18, 2023 12:56 am

Russia was already completely fucked, demographics-wise, and Ukraine wasn't that far behind them before the war. Now the based defender of the Huwite Race just guaranteed both their future is complete shit even if they win. Bravo Nolan, I guess.

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VoiceOfReasonPast
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Re: Russia

Post by VoiceOfReasonPast » Tue Apr 18, 2023 4:09 pm

Plus the longer this lasts, the more second-hand embarassment the world will witness from the flailing Russian army and their dick-waving contest with those mercenaries.
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RedLine
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Re: Russia

Post by RedLine » Tue Apr 18, 2023 4:31 pm

Unless Russia supremely overwhelms Ukraine in the next 4 months I think their military reputation has taken a major hit.
Setting up a giant meat grinder and activating mobilization only to get a slightly stronger hold on the parts of Eastern Ukraine where you already had strong influence doesn't seem like much of a victory.

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Toodles
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Re: Russia

Post by Toodles » Tue Apr 18, 2023 6:11 pm

RedLine wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2023 4:31 pm
Unless Russia supremely overwhelms Ukraine in the next 4 months I think their military reputation has taken a major hit.
Setting up a giant meat grinder and activating mobilization only to get a slightly stronger hold on the parts of Eastern Ukraine where you already had strong influence doesn't seem like much of a victory.
A Russian victory will happen when three conditions are fulfilled:

a) Ukraine stays out of NATO for good.
b) Ukraine is militarily and economically devastated and presents no threat to Russia in long term.
c) Russia annexes and retains permanent control of the parts of Ukraine with the Russian majority.

Conditions b) and c) are close to getting fulfilled and a) will certainly be fulfilled because Russia will have a carte blanche in post-war talks, and she will make sure that NATO isn't near its borders.

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VoiceOfReasonPast
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Re: Russia

Post by VoiceOfReasonPast » Tue Apr 18, 2023 8:03 pm

But the NATO did get closer to the borders.
Because the want to annex parts of the Ukraine.
And because Finnaldn joined the NATO (because of the whole parts-annexing thing).
They likely also want to turn Ukraine into a puppet state, which doesn't help.
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RedLine
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Re: Russia

Post by RedLine » Tue Apr 18, 2023 8:49 pm

Toodles wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2023 6:11 pm
because Russia will have a carte blanche in post-war talks
But how will Russia be achieving that amount of leverage?

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Kugelfisch
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Re: Russia

Post by Kugelfisch » Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:59 am

VoiceOfReasonPast wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2023 8:03 pm
They likely also want to turn Ukraine into a puppet state, which doesn't help.
So exactly like after the fall of the UDSSR or right before the recent putsch? Business as usual for that pile of shit nation that has never governed themselves.
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AdorableOtter
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Re: Russia

Post by AdorableOtter » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:19 am

It's such a retarded mistake the collective West basically forced Russia to side with China when we have to circle around and isolate China which is the real threat. Now Global South is siding Russia and EU is still suffering from economic sanctions boomerangs. Gas station with nukes, ruble to rubble hahaha my ass.
Toodles wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2023 6:11 pm

b) Ukraine is militarily and economically devastated and presents no threat to Russia in long term.
Ukraine lost 10% of population and also a half of military aged men. It's hard to say when Russia decisively win/lose because US is involved but either way Ukraine itself already lost. Ukraine is basically a zombie state which probably never ever truly recover. It's such a devastating damage even though the population loss includes migration/evacuation.

The real question no one asks is, who fill in the vacuum. Europeans? Russians? (Sand) Niggers? Jews who are trying to make new Israel in their true homeland (Khazaria)?

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rabidtictac
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Re: Russia

Post by rabidtictac » Wed Apr 19, 2023 4:35 am

At the end of the day, Russia still has more resources than Ukraine. Unless NATO is prepared to throw the entire combined might of at least the local Euro countries behind Ukraine, Russia will probably win the long war. Ukraine's big advantage is they don't have to "win," just not lose. If they can hold the war in a stalemate forever then that's the same as winning, since Putin's goal seems to be conquest of at least part of Ukraine. And the drawn-out war with Ukraine is definitely sapping Russia's strength, which MIGHT be a genius move if someone wanted to (or was able to) invade Russia. Seems unlikely though, 'cuz nukes.

So what are the likely outcomes of the war? I see them this way:

-Russia wins (conquers Ukraine totally, or nearly) after a long and devastating war which creates enemies with half the world. Then they have to spend decades rebuilding, but at least they have Ukraine's breadbasket to do it with. Best outcome for Putin imo.

-Ukraine denies Russia any meaningful territory gains until Russia withdraws of its own accord back into its borders. Russia will never surrender. Further invasion attempts are likely if/when Russia recovers its strength. Ukraine remains devastated for years. Best outcome for Ukraine.

-Something unexpected/unpredictable happens which causes instability in Russia and places the foreign war on hold.

-Russia wins some territory but not nearly as much as they wanted. Ukraine is unable to take it back and those holdings become the new border/DMZ separating Russia from The West. Both sides are weakened substantially.

-Some shithead sets off a nuke.

-NATO/US/Putin escalates the war with Ukraine into WW3 and nukes irradiate the planet. Cockroaches and DSP remain unaffected.
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