Russia

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rabidtictac
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Re: Russia

Post by rabidtictac » Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:27 am

Le Redditeur wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:27 am
I think best case scenario for Ukraine would be to not give Putin all that he wants, repel them somewhere halfway the original borders, and be done with it, while Putin is still able to go "Mission Accomplished, Cyka Blyat" for the Russian public.
I'm not sure Putin will accept anything short of the realization of his objectives. He's lost too much face to back off. This partial mobilization shows that. It's a "partial mobilization" yet it sounds like there is no upper limit listed anywhere on the amount of troops Putin can call. So he can mobilize the entire country (all eligible age citizens.)

I don't think Russia will lose the war, considering the amount of resources they have and are bringing to bear. But the situation seems unstable as hell. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if I read in the news tomorrow, or a month from now, or half a year from now, that Moscow has fired off nukes. Russian citizens are fleeing the drafts, there are protests in the streets and the occupied territories will soon be made part of Russia so that Putin can send draftees there too. This is becoming a total war.

And if that happens, you can bet China will take the opportunity while the west is distracted to grab Taiwan and any other territories under contention.
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VoiceOfReasonPast
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Re: Russia

Post by VoiceOfReasonPast » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:50 am

Don't get your hopes up. Leave it to Current Year to make even the long-awaited WWIII underwhelming.
rabidtictac wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:27 am
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if I read in the news tomorrow, or a month from now, or half a year from now, that Moscow has fired off nukes.
And then they'll claim it was the Ukraine that did it :roll:
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Kugelfisch
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Re: Russia

Post by Kugelfisch » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:02 am

Ukraine should run out of soldiers sooner than Russia. That's pretty much the important factor, right?
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VoiceOfReasonPast
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Re: Russia

Post by VoiceOfReasonPast » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:26 am

The Ukraine is already using foreign mercenaries, and if push comes to shove there are always the Little Green Men.
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rabidtictac
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Re: Russia

Post by rabidtictac » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:47 am

Kugelfisch wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:02 am
Ukraine should run out of soldiers sooner than Russia. That's pretty much the important factor, right?
The question is what happens when that occurs.

Will another nation step in and start sending Ukraine troops? That would pretty much be the preshow for World War III. Or will the western world watch as Ukraine is gradually ground into the dust and many of its people exterminated?

I don't foresee any way this situation can resolve well. If Putin's power and position are placed in jeopardy, he will fire off nukes. If Ukraine is facing a total loss, It's more than conceivable one or more western powers will step in directly with troops.

The news media seem to be banking their hopes on a popular revolt in Russia to oust Putin. But that seems like a fantasy to me. If news of a draft isn't enough to cause Vladimir Normalfag to rise up then nothing will.
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Kugelfisch
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Re: Russia

Post by Kugelfisch » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:57 am

There is no good end to this either way. The industry may want war but this is an entire different quality of it than bombing goat herders.

What nation would send soldiers to die by the thousands in a hot war with Russia? Sending materiel and Ukraine hiring PMCs is one thing, but I don't think a bombed to shit eastern Ukraine is the hill any NATO nation is willing to die on when it comes to their own troops.

Russia is taking a big hit. It's set to split up eventually anyway. I think people are underestimating how heavily fucked Ukraine is already, though. They had conscription and travel bans for months already.
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Le Redditeur
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Re: Russia

Post by Le Redditeur » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:11 pm

1) There's historic precedent for Russia blundering its way into a war and still winning by sheer numbers. That's what happened in the Winter War: the Finns inflicted serious defeats to the Soviets, but at the end of the day, the Soviets were still marching to Helsinki and they had to settle and give some territory to Stalin.

2) I've seen a lot of talk about "Putin can't survive another loss in Ukraine", which seems to me like these mouthpieces are making the same mistake regarding Putin that Putin made regarding Ukraine: "just one kick and the whole rotten structure comes tumbling down", which is very rich in irony. Not to mention, hopefully they're wrong, because despite everything, a Russian leader on the verge of getting ousted by a coup caused by external factors is a Russian leader much more willing to go the nuclear route.

A Russian "total defeat" could also make NATO go complacent, thinking they have nothing to fear and get sloppy (specially during an economic depression). That could really bite them in the ass down the road.

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Kugelfisch
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Re: Russia

Post by Kugelfisch » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:59 pm

There's no total defeat of Russia.
They will eventually lose the Oblast Kaliningrad and very likely the Far East and Siberia territories, as well as some shit to the south by something like a Chechen Califate. Eventually, mind you.

But the core around Moskow? Not even the collapse of the Soviet Union did them in and current Russia is downright rich and stable by comparison.
Keep in mind that East Ukraine being largely Russian and wanting to separate isn't entirely fabricated either.

It looks like this whole situation will last us many more years to come.
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VoiceOfReasonPast
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Re: Russia

Post by VoiceOfReasonPast » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:38 pm

Le Redditeur wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:11 pm
A Russian "total defeat" could also make NATO go complacent, thinking they have nothing to fear and get sloppy (specially during an economic depression). That could really bite them in the ass down the road.
That might happen if China wouldn't promise to invade Taiwan every other week.
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RedLine
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Re: Russia

Post by RedLine » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:40 pm

rabidtictac wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:47 am
I don't foresee any way this situation can resolve well. If Putin's power and position are placed in jeopardy, he will fire off nukes. If Ukraine is facing a total loss, It's more than conceivable one or more western powers will step in directly with troops.
If Russia uses nuclear weapons then they are deciding to start up the Fallout universe because I don't think the US and Europe are bluffing on an escalated response.

As far as a conventional war is concerned, I first think you are getting ahead of yourself about a Ukrainian "total loss". Right now the fighting is over Eastern parts of the country. It's a long was to the Polish border and I'm not sure total, direct control of all of Ukraine was ever Russia's goal. Second I think it is very unlikely that Russia decides to fire up Treblinka camps in Ukraine or invade a NATO country, which is the only way I think other places with worthwhile militaries would put boots on the ground.

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